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Insights

A collection of observations and statistics regarding the latest developments surrounding SARS-CoV-2.
Regular contributors here are of several of the real-life characters from Michael Lewis' book, The Premonition, including (alongside relevant quotes from the book):
‍
‍Dr. Carter Mecher:  "He had a gift, in a crisis, for figuring out what was going on while there was still time to do something about it."
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‍Dr. Charity Dean:  "By the third week of January, Charity Dean, like Carter Mecher, did not believe that the risk to the American people was low. She thought that the virus was already spreading exponentially inside the United States. It was as if she, and she alone, had spotted the fire in Mann Gulch, and no one else was willing to turn and run."
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‍Dr. Joe DeRisi:  “[Joe has] a mind without boundaries...it’s a mind that is interested in everything and afraid of nothing. It’s a bandwidth that is hard for most people to fathom.”

the latest from phc
The Delta-Plus Variant
There’s been lots of talk about the Delta+ variant coming out to the UK. PHC experts explain what to make of the data and what it suggests about future COVID variants.
November 8, 2021
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At the White House: Presenting a Plan for Better Public Health Response
CEO and co-founder Dr. Charity Dean presented to the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) on the vulnerabilities of America’s public health system and a solutions-based path forward.
October 8, 2021
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Relying on Unreliable Forecasts
Carter Mecher MD -- Medical Advisor
Here we take an analytical approach to why pandemic forecasting is so difficult and how that affects individual decision making, especially when the individual decision-makers have a collective impact.
September 24, 2021
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The Challenges Associated With Complexity, Exponential Growth, and Feedback Delay
Here we uncover three principles that help illustrate why we struggled to effectively handle the pandemic.
September 2, 2021
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All COVID Rivers Lead Into Delta
Sequencing data in conjunction with GISAID data reveals that Delta has essentially become the sole form of COVID in the US, and the future behavior of the virus may take a number of different paths going forward
September 1, 2021
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Monitoring the Younger Demographic with the Delta Variant is Crucial
It's crucial that we monitor how the Delta variant behaves in the younger populations, as many children are unvaccinated and susceptible to infection.
August 26, 2021
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Different Administrations and Similar Difficulties
Both administrations have dealt with issues that have taken the focus off of COVID-19, and we are paying the price of it.
August 25, 2021
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COVID-19 Cases in Kids are Spiking as Georgia Students Return to School
Carter Mecher MD -- Medical Advisor
As schools have reopened, cases in kids have climbed in Georgia.
August 16, 2021
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Recent Florida Death Data Reporting is Painting a Confusing Picture
Carter Mecher MD -- Medical Advisor
The way in which Florida reports COVID-19 deaths has changed, giving it the appearance that the state is in much better shape than it is.
August 14, 2021
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The Swiss Cheese Layer of Defense
Carter Mecher MD -- Medical Advisor
When approaching a strategy for slowing disease transmission, it is important to note that a combination of interventions is much greater than the simple sum of the individual interventions. A "Swiss Cheese" pandemic defense combines the value of individual strategies into a multi-layered mechanism to mitigate disease transmission.
August 13, 2021
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An Update for Louisiana, Florida, Georgia, and Texas
Carter Mecher MD -- Medical Advisor
Here outlines the current state of disease transmission, hospitalization, and ICU admissions for Louisiana, Florida, Georgia, and Texas.
August 12, 2021
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Florida Healthcare System Stressed
Carter Mecher MD -- Medical Advisor
Florida's COVID-19 ICU & Hospitalized numbers and their affect on the healthcare system at large.
August 12, 2021
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An Interesting Contrast between the UK Delta wave and the US Delta wave
The Delta variant has plateaued in the UK, and is rising in the United States with a key distinction.
August 11, 2021
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Florida Shows Concerning COVID-19 Trends
Carter Mecher MD -- Medical Advisor
Florida has become the epicenter of COVID-19, and without proper measures, other states will experience similar surges in cases.
August 10, 2021
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Louisiana and Florida Hospitalizations & ICU Admissions at All-Time Highs
Carter Mecher MD -- Medical Advisor
Louisiana and Florida have all-time highs for Hospitalizations and ICU admissions. The Healthcare system is stressed, and the data is trending upwards.
August 10, 2021
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Age Specific COVID-19 Analysis in Florida
Carter Mecher MD -- Medical Advisor
Examination of age-specific cases in Florida shows that the state is experiencing a surge of Covid-19 cases in children. Also, despite the high levels of vaccination in older age groups in Florida, the current number of cases (many of which are the Delta variant) are about equal to the winter wave of SARS-CoV-2 when vaccination was just beginning and very few were fully vaccinated.
August 10, 2021
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ICU Numbers and Strain on the Healthcare System
Carter Mecher MD -- Medical Advisor
ICU numbers foreshadow numbers of deaths and ICU demand is important for understanding how the healthcare system might be impacted in the near future.
August 4, 2021
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The Importance of ICU/Hospitalization Data
Carter Mecher MD -- Medical Advisor
Up-to-date data analysis shows the numbers being hospitalized in states at the leading edge are comparable to the largest wave previously encountered despite affecting a younger demographic.
July 31, 2021
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The UK and The Delta Variant
Carter Mecher MD -- Medical Advisor
The delta variant is behaving very similarly to the alpha variant in kids and young adults in the UK.
July 3, 2021
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