A collection of observations and statistics regarding the latest developments surrounding SARS-CoV-2. Regular contributors here are of several of the real-life characters from Michael Lewis' book ,The Premonition, including (alongside relevant quotes from the book):
Dr. Carter Mecher: "He had a gift, in a crisis, for figuring out what was going on while there was still time to do something about it." Dr. Charity Dean: "By the third week of January, Charity Dean, like Carter Mecher, did not believe that the risk to the American people was low. She thought that the virus was already spreading exponentially inside the United States. It was as if she, and she alone, had spotted the fire in Mann Gulch, and no one else was willing to turn and run." Dr. Joe DeRisi: “[Joe has] a mind without boundaries...it’s a mind that is interested in everything and afraid of nothing. It’s a bandwidth that is hard for most people to fathom.” Dr. Josh Batson: "Josh would analyze genomic data, show health officers how the virus was moving in their communities, and, with the health officers in the lead, they’d go to battle."
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The Challenges Associated With Complexity, Exponential Growth, and Feedback Delay
Here we uncover three principles that help illustrate why we struggled to effectively handle the pandemic.
Sequencing data in conjunction with GISAID data reveals that Delta has essentially become the sole form of COVID in the US, and the future behavior of the virus may take a number of different paths going forward
When approaching a strategy for slowing disease transmission, it is important to note that a combination of interventions is much greater than the simple sum of the individual interventions. A "Swiss Cheese" pandemic defense combines the value of individual strategies into a multi-layered mechanism to mitigate disease transmission.
Examination of age-specific cases in Florida shows that the state is experiencing a surge of Covid-19 cases in children. Also, despite the high levels of vaccination in older age groups in Florida, the current number of cases (many of which are the Delta variant) are about equal to the winter wave of SARS-CoV-2 when vaccination was just beginning and very few were fully vaccinated.